first off, you probably cant.........
2nd off,,,,,,, you can buy CALL options..... this limits your risk to the amount that the option cost...........
lets say your looking at march corn (which i am)..... its currently at 402 after the overnight session dropped 7 cents......... and all you know is that corn is going to go up.............. you would not want to simply buy it, with only 2500....... your margin will be about 1100.......... if it goes 20 cents against you (back to 382), what will you do then......... your account will be at 1500 and 1100 will still be margin...... you can stay in but will you blink........ there is a lot to this.........
there is a gap that needs to be filled, ending at 396, i happen to know a lot of buy orders are sitting at 395....... to get long once this gap is filled..
here is my analysis of march corn.......
Longterm trend is UP
shorterm trend is sideways to lower
we have a high yesterday of 410.5 to consider, we have a low yesterday of 404............ over night traded lower, its going to open this morning at 402 (because thats where the night session ended)...... it closed yesterday at 409, so its going to open down 7 cents from yesterdays close, are you with me........
this tells me, there are still sellers in this market, especially early today and i wont buy today unless we trade thru the high of 410.5 yesterday.. if it breaks 410.5 today, ill try and buy the first pullback....... if this doesnt happen, then ill never buy today......
i think the market will try and trade lower today, maybe down to 395 area.. if this happens -- a possible short term sale could be executed but id be hesistant to stay overnight (short) in this market...........
today looks like lower early, then we shall see..........
ive got a cattle and hog trade working, but ill check in and out..
2nd off,,,,,,, you can buy CALL options..... this limits your risk to the amount that the option cost...........
lets say your looking at march corn (which i am)..... its currently at 402 after the overnight session dropped 7 cents......... and all you know is that corn is going to go up.............. you would not want to simply buy it, with only 2500....... your margin will be about 1100.......... if it goes 20 cents against you (back to 382), what will you do then......... your account will be at 1500 and 1100 will still be margin...... you can stay in but will you blink........ there is a lot to this.........
there is a gap that needs to be filled, ending at 396, i happen to know a lot of buy orders are sitting at 395....... to get long once this gap is filled..
here is my analysis of march corn.......
Longterm trend is UP
shorterm trend is sideways to lower
we have a high yesterday of 410.5 to consider, we have a low yesterday of 404............ over night traded lower, its going to open this morning at 402 (because thats where the night session ended)...... it closed yesterday at 409, so its going to open down 7 cents from yesterdays close, are you with me........
this tells me, there are still sellers in this market, especially early today and i wont buy today unless we trade thru the high of 410.5 yesterday.. if it breaks 410.5 today, ill try and buy the first pullback....... if this doesnt happen, then ill never buy today......
i think the market will try and trade lower today, maybe down to 395 area.. if this happens -- a possible short term sale could be executed but id be hesistant to stay overnight (short) in this market...........
today looks like lower early, then we shall see..........
ive got a cattle and hog trade working, but ill check in and out..
Quick question....
I didn't remember that the markets opened at the night trading close. Is that always the case? It would seem as if some important news came out before the open that it could gap higher or lower.
Sounds like things are progressing quite well.
Your emphasis on identifying the main trend of the market is a key point for newer traders to keep in mind.
I didn't remember that the markets opened at the night trading close. Is that always the case? It would seem as if some important news came out before the open that it could gap higher or lower.
Sounds like things are progressing quite well.
Your emphasis on identifying the main trend of the market is a key point for newer traders to keep in mind.
SSI,
Still here, just been busy throwing myself around the learning curve. I have pulled all of my technical analysis material out and am rereading with a commodity slant. I have also started the process of hand charting selected commodities. I chose Sugar and Wheat for a few reasons, not the least of which is I know you are and can “check my work” with you. I will start paper trading once I feel comfortable with my grasp. If I reach my personal goals at year end I will move forward next year with a real account. I have a few questions in the mean time.
1) When you are charting do you chart more than just the next contract due? If you are, how many of one commodity. If not, at what point do you move to the next one? At end of current contract, 1 week before end, etc.?
2) Do you only trade certain months of any commodities?
On to a discussion…
What are your thoughts on sugar? I see resistance at 10.60-5. While long term trend seems down, I see a short term increase to the 11.22 – 11.30 range (2 week). I would think of getting in somewhere in the mid 10.70s with a stop-loss of 10.58. This gets me out with a loss $190.40/contract. If it hits 11.20 I would have a paper profit of $504. I am comfortable with that Risk/Reward. I might even consider it into the low 80s (different stop loss though).
Thanks again for your efforts!
Still here, just been busy throwing myself around the learning curve. I have pulled all of my technical analysis material out and am rereading with a commodity slant. I have also started the process of hand charting selected commodities. I chose Sugar and Wheat for a few reasons, not the least of which is I know you are and can “check my work” with you. I will start paper trading once I feel comfortable with my grasp. If I reach my personal goals at year end I will move forward next year with a real account. I have a few questions in the mean time.
1) When you are charting do you chart more than just the next contract due? If you are, how many of one commodity. If not, at what point do you move to the next one? At end of current contract, 1 week before end, etc.?
2) Do you only trade certain months of any commodities?
On to a discussion…
What are your thoughts on sugar? I see resistance at 10.60-5. While long term trend seems down, I see a short term increase to the 11.22 – 11.30 range (2 week). I would think of getting in somewhere in the mid 10.70s with a stop-loss of 10.58. This gets me out with a loss $190.40/contract. If it hits 11.20 I would have a paper profit of $504. I am comfortable with that Risk/Reward. I might even consider it into the low 80s (different stop loss though).
Thanks again for your efforts!
desrat, you see supp at 10.60 and not res.... just wanted to clear that up..
that is contract lows as well (10.62).......... so there will be some supp here..
im not fond of trying to pick a bottom, which is what your trying to do..... im not fond of that trade, not saying that it wont work, just not fond of it. the risk/reward is good......... your just trying to pick a bottom here and get a bounce, i dont like that maneuver........
as for trading back months...... you can trade whichever you choose... back months will have much lighter volume and slippage will be more.... you have to be out of the market before first delivery date, your broker will let you know this..
i try and trade the front month only, unless im in a spread trade.......
and yes, i do chart the back months.........
that is contract lows as well (10.62).......... so there will be some supp here..
im not fond of trying to pick a bottom, which is what your trying to do..... im not fond of that trade, not saying that it wont work, just not fond of it. the risk/reward is good......... your just trying to pick a bottom here and get a bounce, i dont like that maneuver........
as for trading back months...... you can trade whichever you choose... back months will have much lighter volume and slippage will be more.... you have to be out of the market before first delivery date, your broker will let you know this..
i try and trade the front month only, unless im in a spread trade.......
and yes, i do chart the back months.........
hno: should've caught that one.I wasn't intentionally trying to catch the bottom. I just used what I saw as strong support numbers as a stop loss within a range that will keep me from maintance levels. If that support gets crossed the market could tank and I want out anyway. I noticed a few of the indicators I use may be signaling an uptrend. I would buy once the trend was confirmed (why I moved my upper range into the .80s). I picked the 11.20 number based on a return to EMA, I think it could go above as in the past, but this seemed liked a reasonable expectation. Of course I would never try and time the top but would the market take me out.
i understand,,,,,, the market is still sitting at 10.76
the way that i trade, i cannot buy this market --- until i get a confirmation that the move down may be over.......... right now, im just not getting that.. looks as though, they are selling every rally...... just as you would expect in a downtrending market........
if your going to trade wheat, get ready for a wild ride.......... up big yesterday, down big today...... im sure people were getting whipsawed..
the way that i trade, i cannot buy this market --- until i get a confirmation that the move down may be over.......... right now, im just not getting that.. looks as though, they are selling every rally...... just as you would expect in a downtrending market........
if your going to trade wheat, get ready for a wild ride.......... up big yesterday, down big today...... im sure people were getting whipsawed..
desrat, quick look at sugar...
today posted an outside day........ 10.97 high, 10.75 low......... settle was at 10.76......... this tells me, that we will be lower early tomorrow........ still watching contract lows of 10.62............ good chance we make a new low tomorrow........ just an observation....... in other words, knife is still dropping, dont grab it yet........
today posted an outside day........ 10.97 high, 10.75 low......... settle was at 10.76......... this tells me, that we will be lower early tomorrow........ still watching contract lows of 10.62............ good chance we make a new low tomorrow........ just an observation....... in other words, knife is still dropping, dont grab it yet........
